Gameweek 16
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-13 00:00 | ATM vs VAL | 63.6% | 20.5% | 15.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-13 00:00 | BET vs RAC | 65.0% | 18.3% | 16.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-13 00:00 | DEP vs ATH | 37.3% | 26.0% | 36.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-13 00:00 | ELC vs SEV | 44.8% | 23.7% | 31.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-13 00:00 | ESP vs CEL | 34.8% | 27.4% | 37.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-13 00:00 | LEV vs ALA | 42.2% | 24.6% | 33.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-13 00:00 | MLG vs FCB | 11.1% | 11.8% | 77.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-13 00:00 | RMA vs OSA | 72.9% | 15.8% | 11.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-13 00:00 | RSO vs GET | 50.2% | 24.7% | 25.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-13 00:00 | VIL vs RAY | 57.6% | 21.7% | 20.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.