RMA vs OSA
Real Madrid (home) vs Osasuna · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RMA win 72.9% fair 1.37
Draw 15.8% fair 6.32
OSA win 11.2% fair 8.90
Expected Goals
RMA
2.58
—
0.81
OSA
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.8% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.2% | fair 2.93 |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| RMA 2-0 OSA | 11.3% | |
| RMA 3-0 OSA | 9.7% | |
| RMA 2-1 OSA | 9.1% | |
| RMA 1-0 OSA | 8.7% | |
| RMA 3-1 OSA | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RMA goals · Columns: OSA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).