LEV vs ALA
Levante (home) vs Alavés · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEV win 42.2% fair 2.37
Draw 24.6% fair 4.06
ALA win 33.2% fair 3.02
Expected Goals
LEV
1.54
—
1.35
ALA
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.8% | fair 2.23 |
| Both teams to score | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEV 1-1 ALA | 11.6% | |
| LEV 2-1 ALA | 8.9% | |
| LEV 1-0 ALA | 8.5% | |
| LEV 1-2 ALA | 7.8% | |
| LEV 0-1 ALA | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEV goals · Columns: ALA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).