ATM vs VAL
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Valencia · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATM win 63.6% fair 1.57
Draw 20.5% fair 4.88
VAL win 15.9% fair 6.28
Expected Goals
ATM
2.05
—
0.84
VAL
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.7% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 49.7% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 2-0 VAL | 11.6% | |
| ATM 1-0 VAL | 11.3% | |
| ATM 2-1 VAL | 9.8% | |
| ATM 1-1 VAL | 9.6% | |
| ATM 3-0 VAL | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: VAL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).