Gameweek 17
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-20 00:00 | ALA vs ELC | 42.2% | 25.1% | 32.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-20 00:00 | ATH vs BET | 35.0% | 25.4% | 39.6% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-20 00:00 | CEL vs ATM | 32.6% | 26.6% | 40.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-20 00:00 | DEP vs RMA | 19.0% | 19.7% | 61.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-20 00:00 | FCB vs RSO | 80.6% | 10.6% | 8.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-20 00:00 | GET vs LEV | 39.4% | 27.5% | 33.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-20 00:00 | OSA vs VIL | 29.1% | 23.9% | 47.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 12-20 00:00 | RAY vs MLG | 53.2% | 23.7% | 23.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-20 00:00 | SEV vs RAC | 56.0% | 20.9% | 23.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 12-20 00:00 | VAL vs ESP | 40.6% | 26.5% | 33.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.