ALA vs ELC
Alavés (home) vs Elche · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ALA win 42.2% fair 2.37
Draw 25.1% fair 3.99
ELC win 32.7% fair 3.06
Expected Goals
ALA
1.49
—
1.30
ELC
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.3% | fair 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| ALA 1-1 ELC | 11.9% | |
| ALA 1-0 ELC | 9.2% | |
| ALA 2-1 ELC | 8.9% | |
| ALA 0-1 ELC | 8.0% | |
| ALA 1-2 ELC | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ALA goals · Columns: ELC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).