ATH vs BET
Athletic Club (home) vs Real Betis · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATH win 35.0% fair 2.85
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
BET win 39.6% fair 2.52
Expected Goals
ATH
1.30
—
1.45
BET
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.4% | fair 2.07 |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-1 BET | 12.1% | |
| ATH 0-1 BET | 9.3% | |
| ATH 1-2 BET | 8.7% | |
| ATH 1-0 BET | 8.4% | |
| ATH 2-1 BET | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: BET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).