OSA vs VIL
Osasuna (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OSA win 29.1% fair 3.44
Draw 23.9% fair 4.19
VIL win 47.0% fair 2.13
Expected Goals
OSA
1.22
—
1.71
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.0% | fair 2.27 |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 1-1 VIL | 11.1% | |
| OSA 1-2 VIL | 9.5% | |
| OSA 0-1 VIL | 9.2% | |
| OSA 0-2 VIL | 7.8% | |
| OSA 2-1 VIL | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).