SEV vs RAC
Sevilla (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SEV win 56.0% fair 1.79
Draw 20.9% fair 4.79
RAC win 23.1% fair 4.33
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 57.7% / 20.4% / 21.9%.
Expected Goals
SEV
2.17
—
1.28
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.9% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.1% | fair 3.03 |
| Both teams to score | 63.9% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| SEV 2-1 RAC | 9.6% | |
| SEV 1-1 RAC | 8.8% | |
| SEV 2-0 RAC | 7.5% | |
| SEV 3-1 RAC | 6.9% | |
| SEV 1-0 RAC | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SEV goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).