RAY vs MLG
Rayo Vallecano (home) vs Málaga · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAY win 53.2% fair 1.88
Draw 23.7% fair 4.22
MLG win 23.1% fair 4.34
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 54.5% / 23.7% / 21.9%.
Expected Goals
RAY
1.74
—
1.01
MLG
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.3% | fair 2.07 |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAY 1-1 MLG | 11.3% | |
| RAY 1-0 MLG | 11.2% | |
| RAY 2-1 MLG | 9.8% | |
| RAY 2-0 MLG | 9.7% | |
| RAY 0-1 MLG | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAY goals · Columns: MLG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).