DEP vs RMA
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 78% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
DEP win 19.0% fair 5.25
Draw 19.7% fair 5.06
RMA win 61.2% fair 1.63
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 15.1% / 19.1% / 65.8%.
Expected Goals
DEP
0.96
—
2.21
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.8% | fair 2.58 |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 0-2 RMA | 10.3% | |
| DEP 1-2 RMA | 9.8% | |
| DEP 0-1 RMA | 9.3% | |
| DEP 1-1 RMA | 8.9% | |
| DEP 0-3 RMA | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 2.8 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 2.7 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).