FCB vs RSO
Barcelona (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCB win 80.6% fair 1.24
Draw 10.6% fair 9.43
RSO win 8.8% fair 11.36
Expected Goals
FCB
3.82
—
1.17
RSO
| Over 2.5 goals | 87.4% | fair 1.14 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 12.6% | fair 7.94 |
| Both teams to score | 67.4% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 3-1 RSO | 7.4% | |
| FCB 4-1 RSO | 7.1% | |
| FCB 3-0 RSO | 6.4% | |
| FCB 4-0 RSO | 6.1% | |
| FCB 2-1 RSO | 5.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 10.4 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).