Gameweek 18
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-03 00:00 | BET vs ALA | 53.5% | 23.3% | 23.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-03 00:00 | CEL vs DEP | 52.4% | 24.8% | 22.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-03 00:00 | ESP vs FCB | 14.2% | 15.6% | 70.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-03 00:00 | LEV vs VAL | 46.5% | 24.3% | 29.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-03 00:00 | MLG vs ELC | 31.4% | 24.4% | 44.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-03 00:00 | RAC vs ATH | 34.1% | 24.0% | 41.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-03 00:00 | RAY vs ATM | 26.5% | 24.2% | 49.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-03 00:00 | RMA vs GET | 69.0% | 19.1% | 11.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-03 00:00 | RSO vs OSA | 52.6% | 21.9% | 25.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-03 00:00 | VIL vs SEV | 56.1% | 21.4% | 22.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.