ESP vs FCB
Espanyol (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ESP win 14.2% fair 7.05
Draw 15.6% fair 6.39
FCB win 70.2% fair 1.42
Expected Goals
ESP
1.02
—
2.77
FCB
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.8% | fair 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27.2% | fair 3.68 |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-2 FCB | 8.9% | |
| ESP 0-2 FCB | 8.7% | |
| ESP 1-3 FCB | 8.2% | |
| ESP 0-3 FCB | 8.0% | |
| ESP 1-1 FCB | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| 1 | 2.3 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 5.4 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 2.8 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).