Gameweek 19
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-10 00:00 | ALA vs RSO | 41.4% | 23.5% | 35.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-10 00:00 | ATH vs VIL | 33.8% | 24.8% | 41.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-10 00:00 | ATM vs RAC | 70.6% | 16.3% | 13.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-10 00:00 | DEP vs RAY | 40.2% | 25.7% | 34.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-10 00:00 | ELC vs GET | 46.6% | 27.2% | 26.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-10 00:00 | ESP vs BET | 31.9% | 25.1% | 43.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-10 00:00 | OSA vs FCB | 13.1% | 14.6% | 72.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-10 00:00 | RMA vs LEV | 72.9% | 15.3% | 11.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-10 00:00 | SEV vs CEL | 38.2% | 25.9% | 35.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-10 00:00 | VAL vs MLG | 50.6% | 24.6% | 24.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.