DEP vs RAY
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
DEP win 40.2% fair 2.49
Draw 25.7% fair 3.88
RAY win 34.1% fair 2.93
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.2% / 26.0% / 34.8%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.38
—
1.28
RAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.4% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 1-1 RAY | 12.4% | |
| DEP 1-0 RAY | 9.7% | |
| DEP 0-1 RAY | 9.0% | |
| DEP 2-1 RAY | 8.5% | |
| DEP 1-2 RAY | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).