ATH vs VIL
Athletic Club (home) vs Villarreal · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATH win 33.8% fair 2.96
Draw 24.8% fair 4.03
VIL win 41.4% fair 2.41
Expected Goals
ATH
1.31
—
1.53
VIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | fair 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.0% | fair 2.17 |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-1 VIL | 11.7% | |
| ATH 1-2 VIL | 9.0% | |
| ATH 0-1 VIL | 9.0% | |
| ATH 2-1 VIL | 7.6% | |
| ATH 1-0 VIL | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: VIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).