OSA vs FCB
Osasuna (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
OSA win 13.1% fair 7.64
Draw 14.6% fair 6.84
FCB win 72.3% fair 1.38
Expected Goals
OSA
1.01
—
2.92
FCB
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.1% | fair 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24.9% | fair 4.02 |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| OSA 1-2 FCB | 8.5% | |
| OSA 0-2 FCB | 8.4% | |
| OSA 1-3 FCB | 8.2% | |
| OSA 0-3 FCB | 8.1% | |
| OSA 1-4 FCB | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 6.2 |
| 1 | 2.0 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 6.3 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: OSA goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).