SEV vs CEL
Sevilla (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SEV win 38.2% fair 2.62
Draw 25.9% fair 3.86
CEL win 35.9% fair 2.79
Expected Goals
SEV
1.33
—
1.31
CEL
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| SEV 1-1 CEL | 12.4% | |
| SEV 1-0 CEL | 9.5% | |
| SEV 0-1 CEL | 9.4% | |
| SEV 2-1 CEL | 8.3% | |
| SEV 1-2 CEL | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SEV goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).