ALA vs RSO
Alavés (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ALA win 41.4% fair 2.42
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
RSO win 35.1% fair 2.85
Expected Goals
ALA
1.66
—
1.54
RSO
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.0% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.0% | fair 2.63 |
| Both teams to score | 63.6% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| ALA 1-1 RSO | 10.4% | |
| ALA 2-1 RSO | 8.7% | |
| ALA 1-2 RSO | 8.0% | |
| ALA 1-0 RSO | 6.8% | |
| ALA 2-2 RSO | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: ALA goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).