Gameweek 20
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-17 00:00 | ATM vs RSO | 60.0% | 19.9% | 20.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-17 00:00 | BET vs DEP | 58.3% | 21.7% | 20.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-17 00:00 | CEL vs VAL | 51.5% | 25.4% | 23.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-17 00:00 | FCB vs ELC | 79.6% | 11.5% | 8.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-17 00:00 | GET vs ATH | 35.8% | 29.5% | 34.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-17 00:00 | LEV vs ESP | 44.2% | 24.6% | 31.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-17 00:00 | MLG vs RMA | 15.3% | 17.0% | 67.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-17 00:00 | RAC vs OSA | 39.1% | 24.0% | 36.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-17 00:00 | RAY vs SEV | 41.1% | 24.8% | 34.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-17 00:00 | VIL vs ALA | 55.6% | 22.4% | 22.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.