RAC vs OSA
Racing Santander (home) vs Osasuna · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAC win 39.1% fair 2.56
Draw 24.0% fair 4.17
OSA win 36.9% fair 2.71
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.9% / 24.0% / 38.1%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.53
—
1.54
OSA
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.8% | fair 2.45 |
| Both teams to score | 61.5% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-1 OSA | 10.9% | |
| RAC 1-2 OSA | 8.4% | |
| RAC 2-1 OSA | 8.4% | |
| RAC 0-1 OSA | 7.1% | |
| RAC 1-0 OSA | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: OSA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).