BET vs DEP
Real Betis (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BET win 58.3% fair 1.71
Draw 21.7% fair 4.61
DEP win 20.0% fair 5.01
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 60.3% / 21.3% / 18.4%.
Expected Goals
BET
1.98
—
0.99
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.1% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.9% | fair 2.33 |
| Both teams to score | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| BET 1-0 DEP | 10.1% | |
| BET 1-1 DEP | 10.1% | |
| BET 2-0 DEP | 10.0% | |
| BET 2-1 DEP | 10.0% | |
| BET 3-0 DEP | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BET goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).