CEL vs VAL
Celta Vigo (home) vs Valencia · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CEL win 51.5% fair 1.94
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
VAL win 23.1% fair 4.33
Expected Goals
CEL
1.55
—
0.92
VAL
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | fair 2.23 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.1% | fair 1.81 |
| Both teams to score | 47.3% | fair 2.11 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-0 VAL | 13.1% | |
| CEL 1-1 VAL | 12.0% | |
| CEL 2-0 VAL | 10.2% | |
| CEL 2-1 VAL | 9.4% | |
| CEL 0-0 VAL | 8.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.0 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: VAL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).