VIL vs ALA
Villarreal (home) vs Alavés · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VIL win 55.6% fair 1.80
Draw 22.4% fair 4.46
ALA win 22.0% fair 4.55
Expected Goals
VIL
1.90
—
1.07
ALA
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 1-1 ALA | 10.5% | |
| VIL 2-1 ALA | 9.9% | |
| VIL 1-0 ALA | 9.8% | |
| VIL 2-0 ALA | 9.3% | |
| VIL 3-1 ALA | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: ALA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).