Gameweek 21
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-24 00:00 | ALA vs FCB | 15.3% | 16.3% | 68.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-24 00:00 | ATH vs LEV | 46.8% | 24.2% | 29.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-24 00:00 | DEP vs ATM | 24.9% | 23.4% | 51.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-24 00:00 | ELC vs RAY | 46.7% | 24.4% | 28.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-24 00:00 | ESP vs VIL | 30.6% | 24.4% | 44.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-24 00:00 | GET vs OSA | 40.4% | 29.0% | 30.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-24 00:00 | RAC vs CEL | 30.0% | 24.1% | 45.9% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-24 00:00 | RMA vs BET | 60.8% | 20.3% | 19.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-24 00:00 | RSO vs MLG | 61.0% | 19.7% | 19.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-24 00:00 | VAL vs SEV | 38.5% | 25.1% | 36.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.