ATH vs LEV
Athletic Club (home) vs Levante · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATH win 46.8% fair 2.14
Draw 24.2% fair 4.13
LEV win 29.0% fair 3.45
Expected Goals
ATH
1.65
—
1.24
LEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.7% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-1 LEV | 11.4% | |
| ATH 2-1 LEV | 9.4% | |
| ATH 1-0 LEV | 9.1% | |
| ATH 2-0 LEV | 7.5% | |
| ATH 1-2 LEV | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: LEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).