Gameweek 22
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 00:00 | ATM vs ESP | 61.5% | 21.3% | 17.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-31 00:00 | BET vs ELC | 53.3% | 22.6% | 24.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-31 00:00 | CEL vs GET | 48.6% | 28.7% | 22.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-31 00:00 | FCB vs VAL | 82.3% | 10.4% | 7.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-31 00:00 | LEV vs RSO | 40.4% | 22.2% | 37.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-31 00:00 | MLG vs ALA | 32.3% | 25.6% | 42.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-31 00:00 | OSA vs DEP | 44.2% | 25.5% | 30.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-31 00:00 | RAY vs RMA | 19.9% | 20.8% | 59.3% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 01-31 00:00 | SEV vs ATH | 43.1% | 24.9% | 32.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-31 00:00 | VIL vs RAC | 67.1% | 17.3% | 15.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.