Gameweek 23
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-07 00:00 | ALA vs CEL | 36.7% | 27.3% | 36.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-07 00:00 | ATH vs OSA | 47.9% | 25.3% | 26.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-07 00:00 | BET vs SEV | 53.9% | 22.3% | 23.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-07 00:00 | DEP vs MLG | 50.0% | 24.4% | 25.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-07 00:00 | ELC vs LEV | 47.7% | 23.1% | 29.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-07 00:00 | ESP vs RAY | 42.4% | 26.0% | 31.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-07 00:00 | FCB vs ATM | 64.3% | 18.1% | 17.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-07 00:00 | GET vs VIL | 28.2% | 26.9% | 44.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-07 00:00 | RSO vs RMA | 23.1% | 19.6% | 57.2% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-07 00:00 | VAL vs RAC | 49.5% | 23.2% | 27.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.