RSO vs RMA
Real Sociedad (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RSO win 23.1% fair 4.32
Draw 19.6% fair 5.09
RMA win 57.2% fair 1.75
Expected Goals
RSO
1.34
—
2.35
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.3% | fair 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.7% | fair 3.48 |
| Both teams to score | 66.8% | fair 1.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| RSO 1-2 RMA | 9.2% | |
| RSO 1-1 RMA | 7.9% | |
| RSO 1-3 RMA | 7.2% | |
| RSO 0-2 RMA | 6.9% | |
| RSO 2-2 RMA | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: RSO goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).