ESP vs RAY
Espanyol (home) vs Rayo Vallecano · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ESP win 42.4% fair 2.36
Draw 26.0% fair 3.84
RAY win 31.6% fair 3.17
Expected Goals
ESP
1.40
—
1.18
RAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | fair 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.2% | fair 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-1 RAY | 12.5% | |
| ESP 1-0 RAY | 10.6% | |
| ESP 0-1 RAY | 8.9% | |
| ESP 2-1 RAY | 8.8% | |
| ESP 0-0 RAY | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: RAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).