ATH vs OSA
Athletic Club (home) vs Osasuna · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATH win 47.9% fair 2.09
Draw 25.3% fair 3.96
OSA win 26.9% fair 3.72
Expected Goals
ATH
1.55
—
1.08
OSA
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% | fair 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.3% | fair 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | fair 1.93 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-1 OSA | 12.1% | |
| ATH 1-0 OSA | 11.2% | |
| ATH 2-1 OSA | 9.3% | |
| ATH 2-0 OSA | 8.7% | |
| ATH 0-1 OSA | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.1 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: OSA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).