ALA vs CEL
Alavés (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ALA win 36.7% fair 2.72
Draw 27.3% fair 3.67
CEL win 36.0% fair 2.78
Expected Goals
ALA
1.19
—
1.21
CEL
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
| Both teams to score | 48.9% | fair 2.05 |
Most Likely Scores
| ALA 1-1 CEL | 13.1% | |
| ALA 0-1 CEL | 11.0% | |
| ALA 1-0 CEL | 10.8% | |
| ALA 0-0 CEL | 9.0% | |
| ALA 1-2 CEL | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ALA goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).