VAL vs RAC
Valencia (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VAL win 49.5% fair 2.02
Draw 23.2% fair 4.30
RAC win 27.3% fair 3.66
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.0% / 23.1% / 26.9%.
Expected Goals
VAL
1.80
—
1.26
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.0% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.0% | fair 2.44 |
| Both teams to score | 59.8% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| VAL 1-1 RAC | 10.6% | |
| VAL 2-1 RAC | 9.6% | |
| VAL 1-0 RAC | 8.4% | |
| VAL 2-0 RAC | 7.6% | |
| VAL 1-2 RAC | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VAL goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).