Gameweek 24
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-14 00:00 | CEL vs RAY | 49.5% | 25.6% | 24.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-14 00:00 | ELC vs DEP | 49.9% | 23.8% | 26.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-14 00:00 | LEV vs MLG | 54.7% | 22.3% | 22.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-14 00:00 | OSA vs ATM | 24.8% | 23.7% | 51.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-14 00:00 | RAC vs GET | 38.1% | 26.8% | 35.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-14 00:00 | RMA vs ATH | 67.8% | 18.2% | 14.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-14 00:00 | RSO vs BET | 37.9% | 22.7% | 39.4% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-14 00:00 | SEV vs ESP | 46.5% | 24.6% | 28.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-14 00:00 | VAL vs ALA | 38.7% | 26.4% | 34.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-14 00:00 | VIL vs FCB | 23.2% | 19.1% | 57.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.