VIL vs FCB
Villarreal (home) vs Barcelona · model confidence 87% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VIL win 23.2% fair 4.31
Draw 19.1% fair 5.25
FCB win 57.7% fair 1.73
Expected Goals
VIL
1.44
—
2.46
FCB
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.7% | fair 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.3% | fair 3.96 |
| Both teams to score | 69.8% | fair 1.43 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 1-2 FCB | 8.8% | |
| VIL 1-3 FCB | 7.2% | |
| VIL 1-1 FCB | 7.2% | |
| VIL 2-2 FCB | 6.3% | |
| VIL 0-2 FCB | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 3.6 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: FCB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).