RAC vs GET
Racing Santander (home) vs Getafe · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
RAC win 38.1% fair 2.63
Draw 26.8% fair 3.74
GET win 35.2% fair 2.84
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 36.8% / 27.2% / 36.0%.
Expected Goals
RAC
1.24
—
1.23
GET
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | fair 2.23 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | fair 1.99 |
Most Likely Scores
| RAC 1-1 GET | 12.9% | |
| RAC 1-0 GET | 10.5% | |
| RAC 0-1 GET | 10.4% | |
| RAC 0-0 GET | 8.5% | |
| RAC 2-1 GET | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: RAC goals · Columns: GET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).