Gameweek 25
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-21 00:00 | ALA vs RAC | 53.8% | 22.3% | 23.9% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-21 00:00 | ATH vs CEL | 37.9% | 27.4% | 34.8% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-21 00:00 | ATM vs ELC | 59.6% | 21.2% | 19.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-21 00:00 | DEP vs RSO | 36.8% | 23.2% | 40.0% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-21 00:00 | ESP vs OSA | 44.5% | 25.8% | 29.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-21 00:00 | FCB vs LEV | 82.5% | 10.0% | 7.5% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-21 00:00 | MLG vs BET | 24.6% | 22.7% | 52.7% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-21 00:00 | RAY vs GET | 43.0% | 28.7% | 28.3% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-21 00:00 | SEV vs RMA | 21.7% | 20.5% | 57.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-21 00:00 | VIL vs VAL | 59.8% | 21.2% | 19.0% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.