FCB vs LEV
Barcelona (home) vs Levante · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCB win 82.5% fair 1.21
Draw 10.0% fair 10.02
LEV win 7.5% fair 13.28
Expected Goals
FCB
3.74
—
0.97
LEV
| Over 2.5 goals | 84.8% | fair 1.18 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 15.2% | fair 6.60 |
| Both teams to score | 60.7% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 3-0 LEV | 7.9% | |
| FCB 3-1 LEV | 7.6% | |
| FCB 4-0 LEV | 7.3% | |
| FCB 4-1 LEV | 7.1% | |
| FCB 2-0 LEV | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 12.1 | 11.7 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: LEV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).