MLG vs BET
Málaga (home) vs Real Betis · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MLG win 24.6% fair 4.07
Draw 22.7% fair 4.40
BET win 52.7% fair 1.90
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 21.0% / 22.5% / 56.4%.
Expected Goals
MLG
1.05
—
1.87
BET
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.2% | fair 2.26 |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 1-1 BET | 10.6% | |
| MLG 0-1 BET | 10.1% | |
| MLG 1-2 BET | 9.9% | |
| MLG 0-2 BET | 9.4% | |
| MLG 1-3 BET | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: BET goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).