SEV vs RMA
Sevilla (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SEV win 21.7% fair 4.62
Draw 20.5% fair 4.87
RMA win 57.8% fair 1.73
Expected Goals
SEV
1.14
—
2.15
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.9% | fair 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.1% | fair 2.77 |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| SEV 1-2 RMA | 9.8% | |
| SEV 1-1 RMA | 9.1% | |
| SEV 0-2 RMA | 8.6% | |
| SEV 0-1 RMA | 8.0% | |
| SEV 1-3 RMA | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SEV goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).