VIL vs VAL
Villarreal (home) vs Valencia · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
VIL win 59.8% fair 1.67
Draw 21.2% fair 4.71
VAL win 19.0% fair 5.27
Expected Goals
VIL
2.02
—
0.99
VAL
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.0% | fair 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| VIL 2-0 VAL | 10.1% | |
| VIL 2-1 VAL | 10.0% | |
| VIL 1-0 VAL | 9.9% | |
| VIL 1-1 VAL | 9.8% | |
| VIL 3-0 VAL | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: VIL goals · Columns: VAL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).