ATH vs CEL
Athletic Club (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATH win 37.9% fair 2.64
Draw 27.4% fair 3.66
CEL win 34.8% fair 2.88
Expected Goals
ATH
1.21
—
1.18
CEL
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.7% | fair 2.34 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.3% | fair 1.75 |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | fair 2.06 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATH 1-1 CEL | 13.1% | |
| ATH 1-0 CEL | 11.1% | |
| ATH 0-1 CEL | 10.8% | |
| ATH 0-0 CEL | 9.2% | |
| ATH 2-1 CEL | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATH goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).