ATM vs ELC
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Elche · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ATM win 59.6% fair 1.68
Draw 21.2% fair 4.72
ELC win 19.2% fair 5.21
Expected Goals
ATM
2.04
—
1.01
ELC
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.3% | fair 2.42 |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 2-1 ELC | 10.0% | |
| ATM 2-0 ELC | 9.9% | |
| ATM 1-1 ELC | 9.8% | |
| ATM 1-0 ELC | 9.7% | |
| ATM 3-1 ELC | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: ELC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).