ESP vs OSA
Espanyol (home) vs Osasuna · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ESP win 44.5% fair 2.25
Draw 25.8% fair 3.87
OSA win 29.7% fair 3.37
Expected Goals
ESP
1.45
—
1.14
OSA
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | fair 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| ESP 1-1 OSA | 12.4% | |
| ESP 1-0 OSA | 10.9% | |
| ESP 2-1 OSA | 9.0% | |
| ESP 0-1 OSA | 8.5% | |
| ESP 2-0 OSA | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: ESP goals · Columns: OSA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).