DEP vs RSO
Deportivo La Coruña (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
DEP win 36.8% fair 2.72
Draw 23.2% fair 4.30
RSO win 40.0% fair 2.50
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.2% / 23.1% / 41.7%.
Expected Goals
DEP
1.55
—
1.71
RSO
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.3% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.7% | fair 2.72 |
| Both teams to score | 64.6% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| DEP 1-1 RSO | 10.2% | |
| DEP 1-2 RSO | 8.7% | |
| DEP 2-1 RSO | 7.9% | |
| DEP 2-2 RSO | 6.7% | |
| DEP 0-1 RSO | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: DEP goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).