ALA vs RAC
Alavés (home) vs Racing Santander · model confidence 76% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ALA win 53.8% fair 1.86
Draw 22.3% fair 4.49
RAC win 23.9% fair 4.18
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 55.1% / 22.0% / 22.9%.
Expected Goals
ALA
1.94
—
1.18
RAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.4% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.6% | fair 2.53 |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| ALA 1-1 RAC | 10.1% | |
| ALA 2-1 RAC | 9.8% | |
| ALA 1-0 RAC | 8.5% | |
| ALA 2-0 RAC | 8.3% | |
| ALA 3-1 RAC | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ALA goals · Columns: RAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).