Gameweek 26
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight.
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-28 00:00 | ATH vs FCB | 16.3% | 17.0% | 66.8% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-28 00:00 | BET vs VIL | 42.7% | 23.9% | 33.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-28 00:00 | CEL vs ESP | 49.5% | 25.9% | 24.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-28 00:00 | GET vs ALA | 37.0% | 29.4% | 33.6% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-28 00:00 | LEV vs DEP | 47.4% | 23.8% | 28.7% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-28 00:00 | MLG vs ATM | 20.2% | 21.2% | 58.5% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-28 00:00 | OSA vs SEV | 39.0% | 24.9% | 36.1% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-28 00:00 | RAC vs RAY | 37.0% | 23.9% | 39.1% | — | AWAY | analysis → |
| 02-28 00:00 | RMA vs VAL | 72.9% | 16.0% | 11.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 02-28 00:00 | RSO vs ELC | 47.6% | 22.1% | 30.4% | — | HOME | analysis → |
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.