MLG vs ATM
Málaga (home) vs Atlético Madrid · model confidence 77% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MLG win 20.2% fair 4.94
Draw 21.2% fair 4.71
ATM win 58.5% fair 1.71
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 16.1% / 20.8% / 63.1%.
Expected Goals
MLG
0.90
—
2.01
ATM
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.6% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.4% | fair 2.25 |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| MLG 0-2 ATM | 11.0% | |
| MLG 0-1 ATM | 10.9% | |
| MLG 1-2 ATM | 9.9% | |
| MLG 1-1 ATM | 9.9% | |
| MLG 0-3 ATM | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MLG goals · Columns: ATM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).