LEV vs DEP
Levante (home) vs Deportivo La Coruña · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEV win 47.4% fair 2.11
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
DEP win 28.7% fair 3.48
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.7% / 23.8% / 28.5%.
Expected Goals
LEV
1.70
—
1.27
DEP
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.1% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.9% | fair 2.33 |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEV 1-1 DEP | 11.1% | |
| LEV 2-1 DEP | 9.4% | |
| LEV 1-0 DEP | 8.7% | |
| LEV 2-0 DEP | 7.4% | |
| LEV 1-2 DEP | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEV goals · Columns: DEP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).